Probabilities of counterfactuals and counterfactual probabilities
نویسنده
چکیده
[NEEDS POLISHING; COMMENTS WELCOME]
منابع مشابه
Counterfactuals, Probabilities, and Information: Response to Critics
In earlier work we proposed an account of information grounded in counterfactual conditionals rather than probabilities, and argued that it might serve philosophical needs that more familiar probabilistic alternatives do not. Demir (2008) and Scarantino (2008) criticize the counterfactual approach by contending that its alleged advantages are illusory and that it fails to secure attractive desi...
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Counterfactual statements, e.g., ”my headache would be gone had I taken an aspirin” are central to scientific discourse, and are formally interpreted as statements derived from ”alternative worlds”. However, since they invoke hypothetical states of affairs, often incompatible with what is actually known or observed, testing counterfactuals is fraught with conceptual and practical difficulties. ...
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We construct a new measure of voting power that is a reasonable measure of influence even if the votes are not cast independently. The crucial building blocks of our measure are probabilities of counterfactuals, such as the probability that the outcome of the vote would have been yes, had a voter voted yes rather than no as she did in the real world. The probabilities of such counterfactuals ar...
متن کاملQuality Meets Quantity: Case Studies, Conditional Probability, and Counterfactuals
In contrast to statistical methods, a number of case study methods—collectively referred to as Mill’s methods, used by generations of social science researchers—only consider deterministic relationships. They do so to their detriment because heeding the basic lessons of statistical inference can prevent serious inferential errors. Of particular importance is the use of conditional probabilities...
متن کاملPhysical and Metaphysical Counterfactuals
In a previous publication I showed that counterfactuals grounded in decision making can be given interpretation in terms “imaging” – a process of “mass-shifting” among possible worlds. This paper elaborates on this interpretation and shows the converse: imaging can be given an interpretation in terms of a stochastic decision policy in which agents choose actions with certain probabilities. This...
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عنوان ژورنال:
- J. Applied Logic
دوره 12 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2014